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By: derebail2008 | Posted: Nov 18, 2008 | General | 426 Views

The most heartening news for markets to wake up to the reality is that after touch a high of 147 $ per barrel today crude has touch 57 $ a barrel a record slump. Thanks to Bush who gave crude lobby a push by never attempting to reign in the producers.


Most of the American presidents were critical about rise in crude prices, now at last all the developing countries will heave a sign of relief. For the past two years the coffers of oil producing nations have been bursting at their seams, with the unprecedented earnings. There is no significant trigger for rise in crude prices to 300 % from 40 $ Base level. Now it is hopeful that crude prices will finally settle at around 45 to 50 $.


The price of commodities, airline, travel, oil companies, hotel industry, etc have to get their act together and start dropping the prices. There has been no roll back on the prices which have been artificially jacked up. This is first time FM has advised industralists to cut prices. It is surprising that he has advised the industry to resort to cutting prices, with a clincher, for a short time though. Surprising due to the fact that this is election year, when the party has to collect funds from the industry.


Most of the industries are now loaded with cash for example HLL which was offering 1 + 1 shampoo pack of 400 ml in 2004 @ Rs 80 has jacked up the price of 400 ML to Rs 150/- for only 400 ML pack of Sunsilk. One can clearly notice the difference Rs 80 for 800 ML. versus 150 for 400 ML. A difference of 400%.


It is now the turn of the consumers to act in unison to avoid stocking up goods and services. Try to main the lowest inventory. Instead of buy 6 Nos of soaps at a time buy 1, instead of stocking up 10 kgs of atta buy 2 kgs, ensure that it hurts the companies topline. When the sales volume dips, the companies will realise that they have been taking consumers for a ride. They will start cutting prices.


Avoid buying in offers, ensure that consumption is postposed for 2 months only than the prices of all commodities will come down, otherwise even the government is not going to pass on the benefit of crude price drop. The government feels that oil companies have to recover the losses. Meanwhile Airline cos too are convieniently avoiding price cuts despite getting rid of travel agents, fuel price cuts and decreased volume of travel. There is a need for airline fares to come down by 20%. The hotel industry was in tizzy with booming economy, having jacked up prices by 400% now it is time for at least 50% revision downwards.


The effects are really felt in the beating down of the share market. The share prices have crashed. The industrialists are laughing all the way to the bank trying to buy back their shares and increasing their stakes in the company. The reality check for the real estate companies is the biggest shocker. They have been making huge profits with land banks purchased at rock bottom prices. Now it is their turn to offer good accomodation at 15 lakhs and luxury at 25 lakhs.


Bankers will go bust if they start dropping lending rates like what happened in 2000 to 2002, wherein many of the co-operative banks closed shop. Now the cost of deposits need to come down to 7 to 9% levels and lending with 2 % difference.


Overall being a election year, the government of the land does not want to take the risk therefore the onus is on the consumer to to postpone purchases and trigger a downfall of prices.



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