About 120 world leaders are trying to overcome barriers to new deal to combat climate change. Following are possible scenarios.
WHAT IS THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF COPENHAGEN?
A few still want a legally binding treaty but most agree it is out of reach. A legal text would include binding cuts in GHG emissions for developed nations by 2020, action by developing nations to slow emissions, and a package for finance and technology
WHAT SORT OF DEAL IS MORE LIKELY @ COPENHAGEN?
World leaders would agree to what they call a politicallybiniding text including targets for slowing climate changes by 2020, They would also set a deadline for trandforming it into a legal text. They might then leave and tell environment ministers to stay in Copenhagen for day or two to work on details.*
WHAT HAPPENS IF MEETING FAILS @ COPENHAGEN?
If the climate meeting fails, leaders could agree to suspend the negotiations and reconvene sometime in 2010
AND IF THE MEETING COLLAPSES @ COPENHAGEN?
A full breakdown in talks could deepen mistruster between the rich and poor nations & undermine confidence in the UN sustem. It would probably halt considerations by United States senate of emission caps and other nations goal might in turn unravel.
IF THERE IS A POLITICAL DEAL, WHAT WOULD IT SAY?
One goal, in the draft considered on Friday, is to agree to limit warming to max rise of 2 degree celsius above pre-industrial times. The poorest nations and small island states want a tougher ceiling of 1.5 degree celsius.
HOW ABOUT MONEY FOR COPENHAGEN?
A draft suggests a fund of $100bn a year from 2020, raised from public and private sources, to help the poor cope with climate changes. And it calls for fast-start cash of $10 bn a year from 2010-12