https://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-07/news/47126616_1_gdp-growth-forecasts-double-digit-growth-brics

Optimists need to be ever careful and vigilant in order that they do not slip into delusional day-dreaming whilst shaping their opinions.

On 7 Feb 2014, Economic Times carried an opinion piece written by Aditya Puri, MD, HDFC Bank, titled'BRICS in slow-down; how India can buck the trend'(linked above). Now here is a banking industry heavy-weight from whom one should expect some hard-headed realism. But instead Puri serves up a rambling, misleading concoction of wishful thinking, unsupported assumptions and platitudinal statements. The upper-middle class Indian intelligentsia lapses into this type of thinking habitually, as if disconnected from reality.

Let us examine his views in their detail.

His thesis is summed up in his following statement -'India has an enormous advantage in the new economic ballgame. The majority of its problems are self-created and it is in a position to address them. This creates a fantastic opportunity for India to be a positive outlier.'

How is self-creating your problems a'fantastic opportunity'? Won't a wise nation stop self-creating problems or at slow down in creating them or self-create problems of lesser consequence? Furthermore, regardless of how problems arise, the ability to resolve problems should not be assumed, especially in case of nations.

Indians have had the same chronic problems hampering their growth and prosperity since a long time and through successive governments - supply bottlenecks and shortages, insufficient power to fuel their economy, poor transport infrastructure, misallocation of resources and waste, degraded urban living spaces, an outdated and crumbling education infrastructure - all being run by a sub-standard bureaucracy that has outlived its useful life. The track record of Indian governing class in solving any of these chronic issues is highly unremarkable.

Puri says further -'China is slowing down sharply and could possibly clock a growth rate of below 7% this year. Rising wages are whittling its competitive edge and undermining its position as a manufacturing powerhouse. This means that international investors are likely to look at alternatives like India to relocate manufacturing bases.'

Before lamenting China's economic slow-down, Puri should have kept in mind India's extent of economic derailment in 2013-14. China may possibly slow down to 7% but that would be on a GDP size of almost USD 9 trillion! Compared to that, India has slowed down to below 5% and its GDP size is USD 1.7 trillion. China will clock a very healthy growth rate on a base that is 5 times the size of India's annual economic output. Clearly, the nerves are more frayed in India than China and the international investors will take notice of this, and indeed they have. The battering of Indian Rupee reflects that. Over 2008 - 2013, the INR has lost over 50% of its value versus the USD! That is how the international markets view India.

Puri thinks that the'only thing holding it(India) back is political will and consensus.' Really? And who didn't know that TRUISM? The real issue is why is this country not able to muster political will either in the domestic arena or internationally for several decades now? Lack of political will is a symptom of a deeper societal and political rot. Perhaps, valuable answers lie there but Mr. Puri steers clear of that. Why? Is he afraid that he will wind someone up? Domestic policy implementation, international trade successes and international diplomatic standing - all require strong political will which India, a country of 1.2 billion, scantly displays.

And then he gets on to making pious platitudes which your old grandfather can also mouth with equal aplomb - make youth work, be fiscally prudent and blah. Well.

Is this how far and how deep our leaders are thinking? Do they have any sense of the world around them? Are they aware of the looming risks and threats, the international rivalry of nations and civilisations and forces that are shaping the destinies of people? Or are they helplessly stuck in misguided optimism and waiting for miracles to take place?

I wrote this blog for you, dear readers, to provoke you to think. I would love to hear your reaction and will try to write more thoughtful, provocative blogs in future.