The ICC cricket world cup 2011 is round the corner and the whole Indian sub continent is gripped in cricket fever. TV channels and other brands associated with this mega event have started ads for the same.Let me provide my two cents of thought on team India’s chances to win the cricket world cup.
The cricket experts say that bowlers win you test matches while batsmen win you ODI’s. If this is indeed true then India stand a bright chance for they have a splendid batting line up on paper with the least experienced batsmen( Kohli and Pathan) having a 45 ODI’s behind them. However experiences will count for nothing if the batsmen will not soak up the pressure during a run chase or deliver when it matters the most.
Sachin, Sehwag, Gambhir take up the first three slots while , Dhoni and Pathan will be at six and seven respectively. Num 4 and 5 slots will be a toss up between Kohli, Yuvraj and Raina.On the basis of form alone, Kohli deserves to edge out one of his senior colleagues even in a full-strength Indian team. But, if the team think-tank decides to the playing XI solely on experience, Kohli is likely to lose out and this would be most unfair to the Delhi batsman who has been the best Indian batsman in the 50-over format over the last year.
Both Yuvraj and Raina have found run-scoring difficult of late, the most recent
evidence of their struggles coming in the ODI series against South Africa .Yuvraj has been scratchy in his last 20 ODIs, he has only scored 440 runs at an average of 27.5 and strike rate of 69.73.Raina has been in much better form with the bat than Yuvraj, but he hasn’t been as consistent in the last six-seven ODIs he has played as his technical deficiencies have been exploited. In his last 26 ODI innings, Raina has scored 742 runs at an average of 35.33 and strike rate of 93.92.
With both Yuvraj and Raina not being in the best of form, India runs the risk of its late middle-order and tail being exposed early in the World Cup if both are part of the starting line-up. However, if Kohli comes in at No. 4, India is assured of consistency and safety in the middle-order, as he can adapt his game based on the match situation. The need for an in-form and consistent batsman at No. 4 becomes all the more necessary as Dhoni himself has been searching for his best batting form of late. The deciding factor between Yuvraj and Raina could be their part-time spin bowling, and the former has the edge in this department. However, their bowling is only a bonus for India; their main job is to score runs and as of now this is a grey area for both the seniors.
I would have preferred Sreeshant in the team too as he has the pace, swing and can bowl well in the slog overs, however his high percentage of no balls and high economy rate has gone against him.Praveen Kumar and Zaheer khan would be in the starting line up with Munaf patel and Ashish Nehra fighting for the third seamer’s slot.India’s spin department is in good hands of Harbhajan, Ashwin and chawla although I don’t think the latter two will get a game barring an injury to bhajji or if there are some real turners.
My playing XI would be: 1)Sachin Tendulkar 2) Virendra Sehwag 3) Gautam Gambhir 4)Virat Kohli 5) Yuvraj Singh 6) MS Dhoni 7) Yusuf Pathan 8) Harbhajan Singh 9) Zaheer Khan 10) Praveen Kumar 11)Munaf Patel
India start in the death group with South Africa, England, West Indies and Bangladesh also vying for the top four slots .A bad day in the field could see them eliminated again( remember world cup 2007) but this time we do have a buffer for playing six matches in the qualifying stages.
My SWOT Analysis:
== Strength: 1) Best batting line up in the world with all batsmen having at least 45 ODI matches. Sachin, Sehwag and Gambhir are the best in business and India would look for rollicking starts from their top order.
2) Abundance of part time spinners in Yuvraj, Pathan and Raina and playing in subcontinent will help them a bit(may be not in spin but in slowness)
3) Zaheer has loads of experience bowling at the start and slog overs, he will be Dhoni’s man Friday
Weakness: 1) Pace bowling which has been consistently inconsistent.Apart from Zaheer no one has the ability to bowl those yorkers consistently during the slog overs.Indians tend to rely on skills( read swing, slower deliveries, line and length) rather than pace and bounce.
2) Nehra and Patel are a liability on the field and always tend to give additional 20 runs due to their fielding .Others vary from been average to below average on a given day with the exception of Virat Kohli, Raina and Yuvraj( though he has slowed down considerable in the last couple years).
Opportunities: 1) I would like to see Sehwag and Sachin bowl a bit too since they have not only have the experience and wickets to their credit, they can turn the bowl a bit too.
2) In Yusuf Pathan we probably have the best No7 at the moment and the runs he got against South Africa will give him the additional confidence to play well.
Threats==: 1) Our top three batsmen are coming back from injuries .Hopefully the two practice ODI’s will see them get back in groove and match fit.
2) In day night games the ball does tend to swing a bit under lights it making our top three batsmen vulnerable to swing bowling.While chasing if there is a top order collapse the pressure will be on our out of form middle order batsmen.
3) Harbhajan’s dislike for flat Indian pitches is well documented. If he does not get an early wicket or goes for runs, it could swing the tempo towards the opposition
To win this world cup the Indian team will have to play consistently well.We had good teams in the 1987(Lost in Semi finals against England courtesy a late batting order collapse while chasing), 1996(lost to Sri Lanka in Semi final due batting collapse while chasing) and 2003(Lost in finals as bowlers failed to deliver and restrict the Aussies after electing to bowl under seaming conditions) editions too but failed to deliver the knock out punch in crunch situations.The only doubt in my mind is to whether the Indian team can give one month of consistently good cricket, if they do then the results will take care of themselves.If India play to their potential they will win the world cup but as of now I am betting my money on them making it to the semi finals.
To get match schedules, groupings and team compositions for world cup 2011 please go to https://rajivhegde.in/2011/01/cricket-world-cup-2011-information.html
Regards,
Rajiv