Mr Chidambaram is In Ruling But He OS not able to do Any thin for Economic condition. for India This Five year is Dream Economic Condition For India But Last One Is Brake The Dream Of several people.He remains robustly optimistic that this downturn the worldover and particularly in India will reverse itself the second half ofthe current year that should see a 7 per cent growth followed by thatmagical rate of 9 per cent the following year.
On what does the Home Minster rest his unbounded optimism? On thestimulus packages and fiscal measures working out their therapeuticeffects in the third and fourth quarters of the new fiscal. Thatsentiment has been echoed by Dr Virmani, the Chief Economic Advisor inthe Finance Ministry, who added that the US economy’s freefall willsoon hit the bottom and that the only direction it could move was uparound the same time the Indian economy would witness its ownresurrection.
On what does Dr Virmani base his optimism about the Americaneconomy? The highest policymaker in America, Mr Barack Obama hasreminded the nation time and again, the last when he presented hisfirst budget recently, that the road is tough and the revival a longtime coming.
Perhaps that is tough love talking, one might say, a hard butcaring parent bent on telling it like it is. Perhaps the Americanpolicymaker views his duty differently than his Indian counterpart whenit comes to sharing bad news with voters. Perhaps; but it is also truethat the US administration has not only watered own its stimuluspackage, some say unnecessarily since Mr Obama has all the power in theCongress, but because to date, it has no concrete plan for the “zombie”financial sector.
Basically, opinion is divided into two camps that do notnecessarily reflect divisions among policy players as much as a dividedarticulation of what needs to be done to get the financial structureback into shape.
One section, and this may not include many policymakers, believesthe government should take over the “zombie” banks — in short, theall-but bankrupt institutions — for an extended period, get them intoshape and sell them back to the private sector. That is how the BritishGovernment is dealing with Northern Rock and other broke institutionsin Britain.
The Treasury Secretary and the US Federal Reserve Board governorthink differently and as Paul Krugman has written in his latestsyndicated column, keep floating plans that are shot down only to befollowed by another incarnation that also does not fly. The basic ideaof this plan is to find the right investor for the zombie banks, offereasy credit to get it back on its feet. As Mr Krugman notes, this planand variations thereof underline the heads-you-win, tails-I-loseperversity because if the corpse does not revive, the investor justwalks away.
While the two key policymakers, Mr Bernanke and Mr Geithner atTreasury, keep revisiting their drawing boards for any other plan thanstraightforward nationalisation, the economy still awaits the revivalof the banks and lending institutions that can move all that stimulusfunding through the interstices of the economy.
And in the meantime, State governments are sacking people, shelvingprojects while Mr Bobby Jindal, Republican Governor of one of thepoorest states in America – Louisiana, seems to have rejected federalfunds on the ideological-fantastical ground that Government moneycorrupts.
In the event, it is debatable if the turnaround even in America islikely to pan out within the time frame outlined by Dr Virmani andIndian officials.
Of course, a reversal of India’s fortunes does not entirely dependon an American turnaround. Unlike China and East Asian economies,exports account for just 15 per cent of India’s GDP. And more than thedomestic market’s revival, which is what those fiscal “sops” are meantfor, it is the expansion of demand into untapped fields that could setthe economy back on course.
For that to happen, it is not enough as Dr Virmani thinks for thenext Government to engage in more financial market reforms, tax andexpenditure reforms important as they are; nor is it enough as Mr AshokChawla, Secretary, Economic Affairs, observed, for the next governmentto spend more public money.
Government Need Make Master Plane and Implmantation Is More necessary to Impliment it on Grass Root Lavel.
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